Monday Real Estate Watchlist(Week of 10/20/25)

1. Mortgage Rates Hover, But Momentum Returns

Mortgage rates remain in the 6.3%–6.5% range, but buyer confidence is slowly improving. As rates flatten, I’m watching refinance applications and new construction loan activity — both early indicators that developers may start re-entering the market heading into Q1 2026.

Investor takeaway:Now’s the time to secure pre-construction financing or lock in land deals before the next rate cut triggers heavier competition.

2. Midwest Multifamily Momentum

Mid-tier markets across Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky continue to outperform national averages in rent stability and occupancy. Cities like Muncie, Kokomo, and Columbus are seeing cap rates hold firm at 6–7%, while construction costs remain 15–20% lower than coastal regions.

Developer focus: Build-to-rent duplexes and small multifamily remain one of the few product types offering both cash flow and scalability right now.

3. Construction Costs Leveling Off

After three years of volatility, lumber, concrete, and roofing material prices are finally stabilizing. Supply chain pressures have eased, and labor availability has improved in many Midwest submarkets.

Builder insight:This is the moment to finalize budgets, pre-order materials, and solidify bids for Q1 projects. If you’ve been waiting to launch — you’re about to save 5–8% compared to early 2024.

4. Rise in Distressed Opportunities

Foreclosure filings rose nearly 18% year-over-year, opening a window for investors ready to buy value-add or reposition assets. While the market isn’t flooded, smaller banks are beginning to offload underperforming loans quietly to private buyers.

Investor move:Reach out to local lenders or asset managers this week — not every opportunity hits the MLS. Relationships will uncover deals first.

5. Watching the Federal Shutdown Ripple

The temporary pause in the National Flood Insurance Program continues to delay some closings in flood-zone markets. If the shutdown extends, FHA, VA, and USDA processing could slow down next — something developers using federal programs should prepare for.

CorePar move: We’re tracking funding schedules closely on our affordable and workforce housing projects to avoid timeline disruptions.

6. Spotlight Market: Muncie, Indiana

Muncie remains one of the most overlooked but high-yield build-to-rent markets in the Midwest. Average 2-bed rents hover around $950/month, vacancy remains under 4%, and the city’s redevelopment efforts are drawing new employers.

CorePar Development Update:Phase I — 10 duplexes breaking ground soon. Investor discussions continue for Phase II expansion into Kokomo and Columbus.

🔭 Corey’s Closing Thought

The fourth quarter separates opportunists from operators. The next few months will favor investors who are decisive, well-capitalized, and locally connected. While headlines focus on volatility, the real story is stability — in smaller markets with smart fundamentals.

Stay tuned for next Monday’s Watchlist, and as always —invest intentionally, not emotionally.